Heard of the RISKS?

Heard of Mooir Vannin offshore wind farm? Ørsted promises £2 billion in revenue, renewable energy, cheaper electricity, a decommissioning plan, jobs and protection for our wildlife. On the evidence, none of it is guaranteed. So many claims. So few benefits.

Wait — what do you mean there are no guarantees?

We mean exactly that. All we see are lots of risks.

The revenue risks

Treasury's own modelling suggests reduced revenues of £0.7bn to £1.9bn in real terms over a 35-year lifespan — a lifespan no offshore wind farm has ever actually achieved. The figures are built largely on Ørsted's own statements; the Treasury Minister has not endorsed them and no one has independently verified them. Not a penny is secured, ring-fenced or allocated.

Tourism loss risks

Mooir Vannin risks the Manx visitor economy — an industry worth more each year than the project could pay. Treasury states the Manx visitor economy delivers £43m per year to the exchequer — considerably more than the £34m in real terms per year in the Treasury's central case that Mooir Vannin would deliver — yet no department has quantified, or independently tested, how much of that the project risks.

Energy supply

There is no secured supply of power to the Island. The land link is uncertain even on Ørsted's own evidence, and Manx Utilities has confirmed that the Power Purchase Agreement — suggested as capable of offering the Island electricity around 10–15% cheaper — is not in evidence and should not be afforded material weight in the planning balance.

Cheap electricity

There is no guarantee of cheaper electricity. Manx Utilities has given no guarantee that the project will deliver cheaper electricity for Manx consumers, and describes any reduction in customer bills as no more than a future possibility.

Jobs — what jobs?

Ørsted now concedes that it will create only 5–10 Isle of Man jobs per phase — not the 30 initially stated — and that most of the roughly 2,000 construction jobs will be filled from elsewhere.

Decommissioning risk

Probably one of the biggest risks of all to future generations. The estimated cost of up to £740 million (Isle of Man Treasury figures) to remove the project in 35 years? No plan, no secured funds — just more promises.

More offshore wind farms?

Ørsted's claim that the site of Mooir Vannin is the "only" viable option is not supported by the evidence. Former Treasury Minister Dr Alex Allinson submitted evidence stating the Island has "a technical potential to deliver nine gigawatts of offshore energy" — indicating that other sites may already be under consideration for future offshore wind projects.

Bird deaths & inadequate assessments

The baseline ecological assessments are inadequate. Manx Wildlife Trust has stated that "several of the baseline ecological assessments are inadequate" and that "Manx ecological impacts have to date been understated" — meaning that, for some species, the modelled annual deaths are "actually significantly greater than the entire Manx over-wintering population".

A compromise?

The "thought experiment" about a smaller wind farm should be rejected. It is a materially different scheme. Ørsted has not submitted a formal change request — the deadline for which has already passed — and there has been no public consultation on this alternative smaller wind farm. People haven't had their say on it.

Why we must stand together

The initial statutory consultation period was a failure, because the public is only now beginning to understand the reality of this project.

• Unlikely to provide energy security: contrary to copious developer marketing, this wind farm is unlikely to provide energy security for the Isle of Man, provide cheaper electricity, or help us meet our 2030 clean-energy commitments. The project is designed to export energy to the UK grid, and no supply to the Island is secured.
• Uncertain financial benefit: the seabed rental has been minimal — circa £10,000 per year. It may be more in future, but there is no current evidence for it. It may be many years before the Island sees any meaningful income, if any (due to delayed 'profit', capital-cost offsetting and divestment, for example).
• Decommissioning risk: if the operator of Mooir Vannin is not around in 35 years, we may face a potential bill of up to £740 million, according to the Isle of Man Treasury, to remove the infrastructure.
• Agreement for Lease — undisclosed: it is impossible to assess whether financial benefits outweigh the harms, because key financial documents — such as the 'Agreement for Lease' — are undisclosed.
• Environmental damage: we risk permanent damage to our landscapes, seascapes, dark skies and Biosphere status — the foundation of our tourism industry. We face long-term disruption to marine life and fishing grounds from years of construction and operation.
• Industrialised waters & future expansion: this project risks permanent loss of sea space for navigation and ferry routes. Documentation for the UK connection suggests oversized infrastructure and the potential for future "farms". In July 2026, Dr Allinson confirmed government policy plans to develop further offshore wind generation. With no marine spatial plan and an opaque 'Agreement for Lease', we risk ceding our waters for decades to uncontrolled, unconsulted expansion — unable to use our own sea for our own energy projects.

So many claims. So few benefits.