What the examination revealed

The examination of the proposed Mooir Vannin offshore wind farm closed on 9 September 2026. NOT4IOM has since reviewed the evidence submitted to the Examining Body across the full 130-day process. This is our plain account of that evidence — with links so you can read and judge for yourself.

The quick account

• Estimated revenue for the Isle of Man is unverified and unsecured.
• Manx taxpayers could face a potential decommissioning bill of up to £740 million.
• The Isle of Man's tourism industry is put at risk.
• Mooir Vannin will not contribute to the Island's 2030 grid decarbonisation goals.
• Cheaper electricity is not guaranteed by Ørsted or Manx Utilities.
• The Island Link and grid updates are uncosted.
• Ørsted now commits to only 5–10 Isle of Man jobs per phase, not 30.
• Manx Wildlife Trust and Manx Bat Group have raised the alarm on significant bird and bat deaths.
• Our UNESCO Biosphere status is potentially at risk.
• Serious objections from Stena Line, the Isle of Man Steam Packet Company, the Ministry of Defence and Walney affiliates remain unresolved.
• Ørsted is seeking approval for a back-up plan that has never been subject to a planning application.
• Mooir Vannin could be one of up to six more giant offshore wind farms around the Island.

The money risk: unsecured and unverified revenues

Ørsted claims Mooir Vannin will deliver up to £2.4 billion to the Isle of Man Government over its 35-year lifetime — an average of about £57 million a year. Yet in real terms, Treasury's own modelling puts revenue between £0.7 billion and £1.9 billion, with a central case of £1.2 billion. Critically, no revenue estimates have been independently verified — not Ørsted's, not Treasury's. Treasury confirmed that revenue is currently unsecured, depends on the wind farm's profitability over 35 years, and relies on new tax measures not yet enacted by Tynwald.

The Examining Body was not persuaded by Ørsted's revenue claims either, so it required Ørsted to submit an opinion from a King's Counsel on whether revenue can lawfully count as a planning benefit. The KC found that Government revenue is "legally capable of being relevant and important" — but NOT4IOM has never argued otherwise. The question throughout has been legal weight, and the KC's opinion dealt with weight only briefly, and did not engage with the uncertainty or timing of the revenues. It was dated 7 September and filed on 9 September 2026 — the day the examination closed — giving no one any opportunity to review or challenge it. The library even records it as a late submission.

Sources: Treasury ↗ · King's Counsel opinion ↗

Decommissioning: a potential clean-up bill of up to £740 million

This is the single biggest financial risk to the Isle of Man public. Applying the UK DESNZ decommissioning cost ranges cited in Treasury's own evidence, NOT4IOM calculates decommissioning costs broadly in the order of up to £740 million — and not a penny of it is secured. At the end of the examination there was still no financial guarantee in place. We asked for a proper financial security package at Deadlines 7, 8 and 9, and received no response.

Ørsted's Outline Decommissioning Plan deals with the cost in a single sentence: "All required financial information shall be provided to the Department in a 'CONFIDENTIAL' Annex." That's it — no bond, no escrow, no parent-company guarantee, no independently reviewed cost estimate. If the operator fails decades from now, the clean-up of an industrial site abandoned in Manx waters falls on the public.

Source: Outline Decommissioning Plan ↗

Tourism: risking visitor revenue worth more than Mooir Vannin might pay

The 2025 Visit Isle of Man Annual Visitor Economy Report puts tourism's contribution to the exchequer at £43 million a year. Treasury itself told the examination that the visitor economy's exchequer impact is "of the same order of magnitude" as Mooir Vannin's expected revenue. On Treasury's central case, the wind farm's revenue in real terms is around £40 million a year — less than the visitor economy already delivers — and Treasury has stated that any negative impact on tourism "is uncertain".

The public is being asked to accept a permanent, unmitigable transformation of the Island's eastern seascape in exchange for annual revenue potentially lower than a healthy visitor economy already delivers.

Source: Visit Isle of Man 2025 Annual Visitor Economy Report ↗

A 15-year community fund for a 35-year wind farm?

The proposed community fund offers up to £22.5 million over 15 years for a project Ørsted will invest around £4.5 billion to build. Is £1.5 million a year a fair share for an Island that bears all the visual, environmental and potential economic impacts? And why a 15-year fund for a wind farm meant to operate for 35 years?

Is the 35-year lifespan even realistic?

No design certification or operating precedent supports the claimed 35-year lifespan. Industry norms put the average life of offshore turbines at just 20 to 25 years, and no offshore wind farm anywhere has run for 35 years — the industry itself is barely 35 years old. This matters because the 35-year figure underpins every revenue estimate: if the lifespan is shorter, revenues fall and stop sooner. It would be prudent for Ørsted and Treasury to state revenues based on 20, 25 and 30-year lifespans; until then, the revenue is unverified in this respect too.

Source: How long do wind turbines last? ↗

No contribution to the Island's 2030 grid decarbonisation targets

Many Islanders assume Mooir Vannin will help meet the Isle of Man's own net-zero goals. It won't. Ørsted itself confirmed: "the government policy isn't to have an offshore wind farm to decarbonise the Manx electricity grid. The policy says to have an offshore wind farm to decarbonise the UK grid." Mooir Vannin was conceived as an energy-export project for UK environmental benefit and Manx money — and DEFA confirmed the Island faces no penalties if Paris commitments are not met, and can withdraw. The claimed "need" for this project in the Island's own transition is therefore weak.

Cheaper electricity: touted, but not secured

Mooir Vannin was sold as a route to cheaper household electricity via a power purchase agreement. Yet Ørsted accepts a PPA is not part of the planning application, carries no weight in the planning balance, and has no certainty of delivery — and has told the BBC it does "not control electricity prices on the island". Manx Utilities has distanced itself from the claims, stating it cannot "quantify or validate" customer benefits and that any estimate "would be speculative". Any PPA would be priced against the UK grid's wholesale rate — which could turn out higher than the cost of the Island's own Pulrose electricity, meaning no consumer savings at all.

Source: Applicant's written summary (SIH8) ↗

The Island Link: unknown and uncosted grid upgrades

Manx Utilities has confirmed that no preferred cable solution has been selected, the grid connection point and route are not finalised, and it cannot quantify "any related capital costs, operating costs, customer benefits or wider economic outcomes". Connecting Mooir Vannin's offered 100 MW would require significant grid modifications — and it remains unclear who pays, a gap that could run to hundreds of millions. The Island's average demand is around 40 MW, so why 100 MW? Would the Island be expected to pay constraint costs — payments to switch turbines off when the grid cannot absorb the power?

Source: Applicant's written summary (SIH8) ↗

Jobs: the 30-job claim withdrawn, now just 5–10 per phase

Ørsted has confirmed in evidence that the 30 operations-and-maintenance jobs it previously promoted are not secured by its application and should not be treated as a benefit of consent — the figure was removed from its outline employment plan at Deadline 4. Ørsted described the Isle of Man employment opportunity as "modest", with approximately 5 to 10 jobs per phase. Of the roughly 2,000 offshore construction jobs, Ørsted confirmed these will largely go elsewhere, accepting it "can't commit to jobs actually being taken by Isle of Man residents". Despite this, it continued to publicise "at least 30 direct land-based jobs" to the BBC on 24 August 2026.

Source: Applicant's written summary (SIH10) ↗

Wildlife at risk, mitigation inadequate

Ørsted predicts Mooir Vannin will cause 660 bird deaths a year. The Manx Wildlife Trust has stated that several of Ørsted's "baseline ecological assessments are inadequate" and do not reflect local impacts, meaning more deaths are likely. The 309 predicted Guillemot deaths a year represent around 21% of the known Manx over-wintering population, and the 149.5 predicted Razorbill deaths exceed the entire Manx over-wintering population. MWT has also pointed out that Ørsted has failed to suggest suitable mitigation.

On marine wildlife, the evidence shows significant impacts on cetaceans and benthic ecology, and destruction within key herring spawning and scallop grounds. DEFA continues to press for a sandeel monitoring framework and regards a survey of the second herring spawning peak as "essential". Even after the Examining Body asked for scour to be reassessed under more extreme conditions — with wave heights of up to 8.4m recorded in the area — Ørsted replaced its 3-metre wave assessment with one using 1.5-metre waves, so that it "appears to no longer consider extreme weather conditions". DEFA "remains concerned" that scour and sediment mobilisation "may therefore be underestimated".

Source: Manx Wildlife Trust ↗

The Island's UNESCO Biosphere status at risk

The Isle of Man and its territorial seas form UNESCO's only whole-nation Biosphere. A project on this scale — 81 square miles of turbines inside the Biosphere, accepting major, unmitigable landscape and seascape harm in exchange for revenue — sits contrary to the purpose and principles of the programme. Yet despite requests through the Examining Body, and a direct letter from a Principal Stakeholder to UNESCO on 24 June 2026, there is no submission from UNESCO or the UK National Commission for UNESCO anywhere in the Examination Library. The one body that could authoritatively confirm whether the status is at risk has never been heard.

Stena Line's and the Steam Packet's objections, left unanswered

Stena Line stated that "throughout the examination [Ørsted] and its team have shown very little regard to the genuine concerns of Stena", that navigational safety has not been demonstrated to the required standard, and that it had "no choice but to maintain its objection". The Isle of Man Steam Packet Company — a lifeline ferry operator — raised serious concerns about a material increase in collision risk, warning of a man-made navigational chokepoint funnelling traffic between the Mooir Vannin, Walney and Morgan wind farms. It requires a minimum separation in excess of 5 nautical miles; the gap between Mooir Vannin and the Morgan wind farm is just 4.1 nautical miles.

Sources: Stena Line ↗ · Statement of Common Ground ↗

The Ministry of Defence's objection, left unanswered

Despite months of negotiations, the Ministry of Defence confirmed at the close of the examination that "a technically and operationally viable mitigation solution has not been identified" and that it remains concerned Mooir Vannin will interfere with the Primary Surveillance Radar at BAE Systems' Warton Aerodrome. Its objection "cannot be removed and is maintained".

Source: MoD Statement of Common Ground ↗

Ørsted's own affiliates' objections, left unanswered

The operators of the existing Walney wind farms — companies within or connected to Ørsted's own group — told the Examining Body that Ørsted failed to resolve matters before applying for consent, that their objection on wake impacts is unanswered, and that stakeholders were not given a fair opportunity to consider the alternative layout. When a developer's own affiliates say the application is not ready, the point is hard to dismiss.

Source: Walney & WODS ↗

A planning application before any Marine Spatial Plan

Despite Ørsted and the Government being in a contractual agreement since 2015, the application has been presented prematurely — with no Marine Spatial Plan in place. As Dr Alex Allinson told the examination, "a decision was made by the Energy Policy Board not to go ahead with [accurate marine spatial mapping] and a proposal for seabed option auctions until the decision on the Ørsted application had been concluded to maximise possible future interest from other developers." In other words, the Marine Spatial Plan was deliberately deferred so that this application would be decided first and set the precedent. The sequence has been reversed: national strategy is being shaped around a commercial application, rather than the application being tested against national strategy.

Source: Dr Alex Allinson ↗

Scheme 2: a back-up scheme that has never been applied for

Before the Examining Body is Ørsted's application ("Scheme 1") to build up to 87 turbines over ~211 km², 6–12 nautical miles off the east coast, generating 1,400 MW and an estimated £2.4 billion for the Island. After sustained public backlash, Ørsted put a reduced layout — the "Thought Experiment", or "Scheme 2" — before the Examining Body: 72 turbines over ~113 km², 1,100 MW, an estimated £1.8 billion. But Ørsted has never applied for Marine Infrastructure Consent for Scheme 2. The evidence for and against it has never been gathered, studied or consulted on. If the Council of Ministers approves Scheme 2, it will be approving a scheme that has never been through a MIMA application. It also raises a question: if the project needs scale to be viable for UK export, how close to the margin of viability would a 72-turbine scheme sit?

9 GW of wind farms around the Isle of Man — is this our future?

The examination revealed the Government has contemplated more offshore wind farms around the Island. Dr Alex Allinson, the former Treasury Minister, stated the Island has a technical potential of 9 GW of offshore wind, that Mooir Vannin is "the first to prove the concept", and that KPMG has modelled option fees of up to £600 million a year should up to 6 GW be developed. The Isle of Man could be surrounded by potentially six more wind farms, with the loss of more seascapes, fishing grounds and further environmental harm.

Source: Dr Alex Allinson ↗

Ørsted settles with the Manx Fish Producers Organisation

On the day the examination closed, the Manx Fish Producers Organisation confirmed a mitigation settlement with Ørsted and withdrew its objection. The fishermen were organised and represented, and no one criticises them — but no fund and no agreement exists for anyone else. A wind farm developer does not pay to settle harm it believes does not exist.

Source: Manx Fish Producers Organisation ↗

For renewables. Against a bad deal for the Isle of Man.